How much time will Paul Manafort and Michael Cohen get?

Manafort will get a longer sentence because he went to trial and lost. The government will file a PreSentence Report to the judge and try to pile on as much time as they can, maybe asking for 20 years - which really adds to the drama. There are sentencing guidelines which federal prosecutors push to the high side of the range - understanding that they get graded on how much time their "wins" bring. It's a shitty system, but its the one we have to go by.

Cohen pled guilty so he'll get at the lower end of the recommendation. We don't know yet about Cohen's willingness to try and use the Trump investigation as a way to provide "substantial assistance" to the prosecutor. In other words, he testifies against someone else to get a reduction in his sentence. Assistance can bring anywhere from 10 - 100% off the sentence - but normally, it's 1/3 off. These are white-collar tax convictions for both - it is often the dollar amount of the fraud that determines the sentence.

My guess: Manafort gets 60 months, Cohen gets 20 months; both will be in a prison camp near where they live so that their families may visit them more frequently. They will have more problems with boredom and embarrassment that dealing with violent inmate situations.