In the federal system there is no parole, and good time credit only goes so far. The standard is 85% of the sentence, which on 30 months works out to about 25.5 months served. With a voluntary surrender date of December 2, 2021 and a release date of January 17, 2024, that math lines up closely with what she is looking at.
The one program that can change that calculation significantly is RDAP, the Residential Drug Abuse Program. If she qualifies and gets accepted, RDAP takes a full 12 months off her sentence and adds up to 6 months of halfway house time on the back end. That is a substantial benefit, and for someone at FMC Carswell it is worth pursuing aggressively if there is any documented history of substance abuse that makes her eligible.
The halfway house component matters as much as the sentence reduction. Six months in a halfway house rather than inside means she is back in the community, able to work, and rebuilding her life well ahead of a straight release date. The transition is smoother and the reentry support is built in.
Have her talk to her case manager about RDAP eligibility as soon as possible if she has not already. Waitlists exist and getting on one early matters. If she qualifies and completes the program, the difference between RDAP and no RDAP on a 30-month sentence is significant.