Parole is one of the hardest things to predict, and the truth is that most people are not approved on their first hearing.
That does not mean your son has no chance, it just means the board tends to be cautious, especially the first time they review a case.
What works in his favor:
What the parole board looks at:
First hearing reality:
A lot of inmates get:
What he should focus on now:
Bottom line
It is not easy to get parole the first time, but it does happen, especially for non-violent cases with a clean institutional record. He should prepare like he is going home, but be mentally ready in case the board wants to see more time.