A probation violation with three separate issues stacked together is a serious situation, and the outlook is not good. The judge who originally granted probation instead of prison time extended a form of leniency, and coming back before that same judge on a violation, especially one involving missed reporting, unpaid fees, and a dirty test, is going to test that goodwill hard.
In Tennessee, a VOP hearing does not carry the same burden of proof as a criminal trial. The judge only needs to find that a violation more likely than not occurred, and with three violations documented, that finding is almost certain. What happens next is up to the judge's discretion.
The most common outcome in a case like this is revocation of probation and imposition of the original sentence. That means the full 5 years, not just the remaining unserved portion, and typically without good time credit. The judge essentially converts the paper sentence to real time. There is no guarantee that is what happens here, but it is the outcome that has to be planned for.
The best thing working in his favor right now is having an attorney at the hearing who can present mitigating circumstances, document any steps taken toward compliance, and make a case for a lesser sanction such as jail time with reinstatement of probation. Showing up without representation in front of a judge who has already seen this case once is a significant risk.
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