A federal probation violation (technically “supervised release” in the federal system) is taken seriously, and early release is not common in these cases.
When someone is picked up for not reporting:
If he was told “about 8 months,” that is likely:
Can he get out earlier?
Sometimes, but options are limited:
Do not expect a large reduction. Most of the time will be served.
How to find the actual release date:
About Joe Corley:
If he is at Joe Corley Detention Facility, that is a holding facility. His final designation and official release date may not be set yet.
Bottom line
He may get a small reduction from good time, but do not expect early release beyond that. The most accurate release date will come once he is processed into the federal system and his sentence is officially calculated.